The COP 30 climate summit, scheduled for November in Belém, Brazil, is shaping up to be a decisive turning point for global climate diplomacy. After the disappointments of previous conferences—most notably COP 29, criticized for its inadequate financial commitments and stalled discussions on the phase-out of fossil fuels—the relevance of these annual gatherings is increasingly being called into question.
The Brazilian team presiding over COP 30 aims to restore momentum to the event by making it more effective and avoiding distractions from new controversial topics. But the question remains: will delegates be able to rise above national priorities to achieve tangible progress?
A Context of Declining Commitments
The conference takes place against a backdrop of weakening climate and environmental commitments. Few signatories of the Paris Agreement have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035, which outline their emission reduction targets. In the United States, climate finance has stalled under the new administration. In Brazil, the national oil regulator recently granted new drilling rights near the mouth of the Amazon River—an illustration of the ongoing trade-offs between economic growth and environmental protection.
Marking the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, the Brazilian presidency hopes to refocus discussions on resilience, systemic transformation, and climate equity, without letting a single theme—such as finance at COP 29—dominate the agenda. The goal is to connect climate policy to the real economy and daily life, bringing ambition closer to concrete reality.
Key Themes Expected at COP 30
Energy Transition
The conference will aim to avoid contentious disputes over fossil fuel phase-out targets, emphasizing instead the expansion of renewables, energy efficiency, and sectoral transformation. However, the credibility of systemic change is being undermined by the rollback of climate finance in the U.S., populist pressure on green policies in Europe, and China—while leading the world in renewable energy—continuing to approve coal plants at a record pace. This gap between declared ambition and actual momentum highlights both China’s influence and the lack of credibility behind international commitments.
Just Transition
Brazil intends to highlight equity and climate justice through the concept of a just transition—a fair shift toward a low-carbon economy. Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, COP 30 could build on progress made during the June talks in Bonn, particularly regarding youth engagement. Nevertheless, concrete progress is still needed in financing, climate education, reskilling for green jobs, and social protection.
Biodiversity
This theme will likely remain secondary. Brazil faces complex internal challenges, such as the suspension of the Amazon Soy Moratorium, which was designed to curb deforestation. Nonetheless, the country is expected to announce a $125 billion fund to reward nations that protect their forests—though support from wealthy countries remains uncertain.
Agriculture and Food Systems
COP 30 is also expected to address the transformation of food systems as a lever for resilience and emission reduction. Technology will play a key role in this shift.
Adaptation to Physical Risks
Climate adaptation will be a major topic, with continued support for National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) in the most vulnerable economies. The gap between adaptation needs and available funding is widely acknowledged, and the presidency is pushing for adaptation to become a pillar of global policy and infrastructure. Although a significant funding increase seems unlikely, the establishment of a Global Goal on Adaptation, with clear indicators of progress, could represent an intermediate achievement.
Human and Social Development
The impact of climate change on health, and the need for resilient healthcare systems, will be central themes of the discussions. Brazil is preparing an action plan to adapt its health sector to climate risks.
Climate Finance
So far, 2025 has been a difficult year for climate finance: several major banks have exited the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, the U.S. Federal Reserve has withdrawn from the Network for Greening the Financial System, and fossil fuel financing continues to grow. However, outside U.S. influence, there are encouraging developments, particularly in China, which is making progress on regulatory transparency.
Climate Technologies
Technology will be crucial for mobilizing climate finance and ensuring the equitable dissemination of innovation. Following the emphasis on digital solutions at COP 29, COP 30 is expected to showcase the latest technological breakthroughs in the field.
Conclusion
The choice of Belém, on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, as the host city for COP 30 symbolizes both the urgency and the complexity of the global climate challenge. While full consensus across all topics appears unlikely, commitments on adaptation, health, and technology could restore meaning and relevance to the COP process—and reconnect international climate diplomacy with its essential purpose: bridging human progress and planetary limits.
